October 17, 2025
At Future Plans, we recognize the unique economic challenges faced by Appalachian counties and southern Ohio. Our insight is based on a deep understanding of the region’s shifting demographics, workforce demands, and the evolving goals of its residents.
The Population Challenge: Fewer People, More Jobs
Recent studies by Workforce30 show a stark reality: the population in the JobsOhio Southeast Region has declined by nearly 50,000 since 2010, and projections indicate a further loss of almost 120,000 by 2040. This trend is even more pronounced in many Appalachian counties, where:
- 74.3% of residents live in the county of their birth, reflecting strong community ties but also limited workforce mobility.
- The number of residents aged 50–64 (278,000) far exceeds those aged 0–15 (155,000), signaling a looming retirement wave and a shrinking pool of new workforce entrants.
- By 2024, there was already less than one unemployed person for every job opening in Ohio and West Virginia, a gap expected to widen as more jobs are created and the population continues to decline.
Exacerbating this problem are key population decline challenges:
- Loss of nearly 160,000 people projected across the region by 2040.
- More retirees than new workforce entrants.
- Potential for over 123,000 jobs to remain unfilled in the coming years.
Economic Expansion in the Face of Demographic Headwinds
Traditional economic growth models—those that rely on population expansion—are no longer viable for our region. Instead, the focus must shift to:
- Productivity enhancement
- Remote work attraction
- Automation
- Quality-of-life improvements
These strategies are essential to maximize economic potential despite demographic headwinds. The region’s limited or negative population growth creates a structural ceiling on economic expansion through traditional means.
Education Trends: Shifting Pathways
The national trend of fewer students pursuing bachelor’s degrees is reflected locally, but with a twist:
- Bachelor’s degree completions have declined by 20% since 2013.
- Associate’s degrees are down 35%.
- Certificate completions are up 17%.
- Master’s degrees have increased by 57%.
- Doctoral degrees are up 51%.
This shift signals a growing interest in practical, career-focused credentials and advanced degrees, even as traditional four-year pathways see fewer enrollments.
The Path Forward: Community, Collaboration, and Innovation
Future Plans is actively addressing these challenges through innovative programs like the GRIT Project. The GRIT Project, along with the Future Plans Five-Step Program, provides a structured, data-driven approach to help communities and their students navigate economic and educational transitions. By leveraging personalized aptitude assessments, career exploration, and community partnerships, these programs empower students to discover their strengths, align with in-demand careers, and build pathways to success—ensuring that Appalachian Ohio’s next generation is prepared for the realities of a changing workforce
Future Plans and its partners are responding with a multi-pronged approach with Personalized learning, Community-wide coalitions, and strategic outreach. Collectively, we believe that by acknowledging these challenges and working together, Appalachian Ohio can build a resilient, adaptive, and thriving future.
*Data from Workforce30, an initiative managed by SHP. Workforce30 is a comprehensive, data-driven effort led by Washington State College of Ohio to better align education and training with local workforce needs. It is supported by a coalition of local partners, including Future Plans, and offers a comprehensive roadmap for the next generation of community and economic development.
